Could any 787-10s be in the Qantas' 787 order for Asia/(eventual) A333 replacements?

12 replies

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

Could any 787-10s be in the Qantas' 787 order for Asia/(eventual) A333 replacements?

watson374

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 17 Aug 2012

Total posts 1,285

The A330-300 fleet is just undergoing refurbishment. Don't expect them to go anywhere before they turn 20 years old.

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

Yeah I know but the the purchase rights stretch up to 2025 and Qantas was interested in the -10 variant when it was launched and doesn't the 9 really have an excess of range when flying to Asia

watson374

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Member since 17 Aug 2012

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The 787-10 is probably a good fit for Asia, yes; maybe expect them in 2025, yes; too far to speculate, yes.

StudiodeKadent

Member since 20 May 2015

Total posts 109

I think Qantas is doing their best to keep the fleet as consistent as possible, with the smallest number of aircraft types. This would lead me to suspect that they will only be ordering 787-9s (which can do quite literally every route Qantas requires, including Sydney-Dallas).

On the other hand, the fact is that Qantas' fleet has a slight problem - if their international fleet is only composed of 787-9s and Airbus A380s, there is a HUGE capacity jump. Apparently, Qantas' 787-9 is going to carry 275 people (that was the initial plan, and from what I know of LOPAs this is perfectly feasible... I've actually sketched out what I believe the config will be on this basis and its an exact match capacity-wise). The A380 carries about 485 I think, so routes with a more mid-sized capacity will have... what aircraft to serve them?

The 787-10 would actually be a great choice for the more popular Asian routes (HK/Singapore especially) but its capacity would only be about 310 or so. It simply isn't that much bigger than the 787-10 (nor does it have to be).

I think Qantas is better served to wait for the 777-X (the A350-1000 has a shorter range than either of the 777-X variants, and only has the capacity of the smaller one) before getting a larger aircraft than the 787-9. 777-X9s will be able to do every route Qantas has with about 380 people aboard (perhaps a few more but I doubt they'd get above 400), so it would slot quite well between their Dreamliner and A380.

StudiodeKadent

Member since 20 May 2015

Total posts 109

CORRECTIONS: "It simply isn't that much bigger than the 787-10 (nor does it have to be)." should read "It simply isn't that much bigger than the 787-9, and sacrificing fleet commonality/interchangeability may be a significantly more substantial cost than the modest benefit of mildly increased capacity."

Apologies for the error.

Jedinak K

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 06 Sep 2012

Total posts 99

Interesting view point on this matter. Here's the thing though. Apart from LAX, Dallas, Dubai, Hong Kong and London, what other routes/cities justifies the B777X? The B7879/10 is capable of Asia and North American flights, plus is able to open up new routes if QF plans for it. The A380 is deployed in hub-hub routes where excess capacity is required. The B777-9 can carry upto 407 seats in a three class configuration, even more so if first class seats are neglected. Boeing 777-8 has extra range but sacrificies capacity to 350 seats. If anything B777-9 could serve as a replacement, rather than a supplementary aircraft. I actually think the A380/B789 combo serves well for QF, seeing as they don't serve markets that requires 350 seats and the B789 is capable of opening up new routes with its long haul efficiency. Of course this is going to be a long term strategy so QF isn't as concerned with it as it is with the B789s. 

Jedinak K

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Member since 06 Sep 2012

Total posts 99

Forgot to mention that if QF purchases all 50 B789s then they are able to offer frequent daily flights to their destinations, which serves better for customers than five or four flights per week. 

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

how many 787-9s do you think they will order? could they order the full 50 ?

Jedinak K

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 06 Sep 2012

Total posts 99

Depends. I don't expect them to order all 50 aircraft at once, probably 15-20 to start off with then the others will come depending on their flexibility, route and fleet planning and logistics. 

Jedinak K

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 06 Sep 2012

Total posts 99

Or if QF is interested in the B7810 then they could do a 35-15 aircraft split. The B789s could be rotated in International and Domestic flights and the 15 B7810 could be used in Asia. But I don't expect the B7810s to come in until the A330s begin retirement. 

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

Will Qantas order like two 787-9s for every 747 to replace on average?

Jedinak K

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 06 Sep 2012

Total posts 99

Who knows? It all depends on AJ and what he wants to utilise the B787s for. Definitely the first priority would be to replace the aging B744s. 

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