Do you think a mainland carrier will ever become part of OW?

Do you think a mainland carrier will ever become part of OW?

Do you think a mainland carrier will ever become part of One World? If so, which one and when?

Qantas, 1999.

Or did you mean to ask about mainland China? .......

Isn't it implied? The term "mainland" is not just a geographical description but also taken to be a mildly derogatory term, in some quarters.

And to answer the question. No. CX would kick such a big fuss. I personally can't see a mainland carrier being up to the standards of Oneworld - it would be a wrong fit. But who knows? 

If one were to join it would be an airline with a similar profile to S7 or Air Berlin. 

Not that derogatory, your thinking of "PRC" ;)

I can picture BA one day becoming desperate enough that they may 1, insist on pulling a Chinese partner into OW and 2, find a way to make sure CX can't do anything about it beyond leaving OW. If you think that's unlikely, Emirates-Qantas was also what people would call "unlikely" for years and years.

Anyway, the exact who-goes-where is hard to predict because there's so much land grab/volatility within the Chinese market right now. While you can try to say "this alliance is logical for this airline" that may not be how the airline decides, and it may not be the whole picture. Then there's the smaller consideration that airlines worldwide have begun to prefer the "everyone sleeps with everyone" mode over seeing a major alliance as the holy grail.

So, while I've seen people talk about China Eastern possibly switching to OW at some point, or Juneyao deciding on *A this year, and I think it's too early to say.

I would respectfully disagree that airlines or alliances have standards. I used to think that too, until I saw the SQ/BR transpacific codeshare. :)

Oh God! Don't start another Qantas-Emirates thing here!

Not while CA and CX have their cross-shareholdings.

While it doesn't make sense for both CZ and MU to be in SkyTeam, I suspect CA is quite happy with it that way.

And I think the threat of CX leaving would ensure that no other oneworld airline tries to force it.

But stranger things have happened.

Due to the latest plan to relocate both MU and CZ to the new Beijing airport, I think MU would consider to quit SkyTeam and join OneWorld.

I think there has to be at some point. However, I think the issue will be "when will see a Mainland carrier up to OQ standards"?  To me, that seems to be the biggest question. Mainland carriers aren't on par by any stretch.

OW can't afford to rely on CX for the market. It's too big. Someone will first JV on some routes w/ a chinese carrier (may have already happened, not sure)  and have a few years of success. Then, we'd see sponsorship into OW.