Probability of International Travel from January

86 replies

patrickk

Qantas

Member since 19 Apr 2012

Total posts 684

Originally Posted by GoRobin

patrickk...the vaccines partly work. They don't stop infection and transmission and hence the requirement for quarantine.

agree but hopefully home quarantine plus test will be enough for full vacced

GoRobin

Member since 07 May 2020

Total posts 110

patrickk....hope and faith is all one can have when the Australian Federal Government has no plan, nor have they ever had any plan. There are currently 8 different plans circulating around Australia, and most of them are conflicting. And now one has to factor in ADE which may be happening in Israel. Go and google ADE. This is of course breaking news and the next couple of weeks will give an idea about the trend. Right now, Israel who are a highly vaccinated nation have been put on the RED list for visitors to Germany and Belgium. ie. quarantine regardless of vaxx status. So one can't believe that the extremely risk averse Presidents of the various States of Australia will do anything different knowing all this? It's not looking good for a Christmas family gathering in Australia, let alone international travel. Please remind me next June that I was wrong.

Last editedby GoRobin at Aug 31, 2021, 06:25 PM.
Last editedby GoRobin at Aug 31, 2021, 06:28 PM.
Last editedby GoRobin at Aug 31, 2021, 06:32 PM.

Flyer86

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 30 Mar 2018

Total posts 3

WA and Qld residents are going to be left far behind because of the archaic dictatorship in charge. NSW and Vic will be the ones allowed to travel with thriving economies. The other leaders need to stick with what was agreed to and proven that with delta zero is not realistic.

patrickk

Qantas

Member since 19 Apr 2012

Total posts 684

Flyer you can’t be serious that QLD and WA are not thriving. Their policies and also that of SA and Tas which you don’t mention (maybe because they are liberal states), have done well because of their ‘go hard go early COVID policies.

Caversham04

Member since 30 Mar 2014

Total posts 4

Unlikely, with the various State premiers drunk on power and beholden to fantasy-land permanent zero-covid pie-in-the-sky

Madhatter49

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 11 Dec 2016

Total posts 74

Reading this thread, it's easy to identify the misinformed "out of touch with reality" Skynews only watchers.

icarusol

UA

Member since 30 Jun 2015

Total posts 6

My agent had booked me on the first QF flight to YVR on 18 December but agreed it was wishful thinking. So we killed the booking before I had yet more dollars tied to non-existent travel.

Interestingly, NSW could open now to citizens wanting to return home from overseas. They could return with no quarantine at all if they are from a low risk "green" country, double vaccinated at least 30 days prior and had a clean PCR 48 hours before departure. Yes a few positive case will come through but with over a 1000 local positives a day (and climbing) the nett impact would be nil.

XWu

Member since 09 May 2020

Total posts 147

Originally Posted by patrickk

XWu when you see how sick double vacced people get in the UK with COVID-19 without going to hospital you wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Second around 3-5% of vacced people who get it end up in hospital. If the number is large it can still stretch the health system as the Brits are finding out. To say there is no suitable hospital in Toowoomba is falling for federal government propaganda. It is good to see you have access to the full Qld government proposal, most of us don’t for very obvious reasons.

Just curious under what circumstances would you think there will be quarantine-free international travel after 80% vaccination of Australians? There are no other scenario I am aware of from where there is zero or as-low-as-practical risk of people carrying COVID-19 travelling into Australia in which there is no risk of bringing in additional cases of infected people. In general the virus will not get milder over time, the more infectious and serious variant will become dominant as they evolve over time. It will be similar to influenza (and you will not be surprised the number of young Australians with not much other health conditions dying of influenza even in 2019).

BTW please use the term “fully vaccinated” or “completed course of vaccination” rather than “double vaccinated” if that’s what you meant, since some vaccine (not currently available in Australia but used elsewhere) only require one shot.

Also FYI The QLD Deputy Premier was quoted to say Positive patients would be transported either by ambulance or airlifted to Brisbane’s existing COVID hospitals

The proposed quarantine facility, near Toowoomba, would be almost a two-hour drive from the nearest tertiary hospital in Brisbane.

patrickk

Qantas

Member since 19 Apr 2012

Total posts 684

XWu we are in furious agreement with you, there will be a need for home quarantine for the foreseeable future, and cabin based quarantine for those that can’t home quarantine which will be many, hence Toowoomba. The difference we have is when it is built whether Toowoomba hospital can manage most, with an ambulance to Brisbane for the rest. I can see this facility being quite busy through 2022 and probably 2023; not a white elephant in sight. I’m sorry my use of the term double vacced seems to cause worries, but this is a relaxed blog, and the point is clear in Australia it takes two jabs to get maximum benefit.

GoRobin

Member since 07 May 2020

Total posts 110

XWU.....soon it will multi-vaxxed with some brands. How will border authorities be able to manage if someone should be single vaxxed, double vaxxed or multi vaxxed, and which one applies? Needless to say, governments will try to come up with some sort of plan when they get confronted with the dilemma, but not beforehand. And people think that there will be easy travel overseas and back in a couple of months time.

Greg E

Member since 26 Sep 2020

Total posts 26

It is close to 100% certain that NSW will open up to International travel when they reach, or soon after reaching, 80% double dose. Gladys has already pitched it as an important outcome of her vaccination strategy and Morrison will make it happen in order to smack down the Queensland and WA Premiers. It will all be about politics. As an aside, Qantas is actively looking at redirecting the non-stop PER-LHR flights to DRW-LHR on the understanding that WA will remain closed well into 2022. It will be part practical and part to punish WA. Qantas staff are furious at the WA Premier.

Greg E

Member since 26 Sep 2020

Total posts 26

Originally Posted by GoRobin

XWU.....soon it will multi-vaxxed with some brands. How will border authorities be able to manage if someone should be single vaxxed, double vaxxed or multi vaxxed, and which one applies? Needless to say, governments will try to come up with some sort of plan when they get confronted with the dilemma, but not beforehand. And people think that there will be easy travel overseas and back in a couple of months time.

Vaccinated means double dose. You will require the digital certificate that is only issued when you are double dosed. The only variation could be that you have to wait two weeks until the second dose has taken full effect.

DVDA

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 12 Nov 2017

Total posts 13

The yes vote has surged in the past week since the various announcements regarding 80% double dose.

Assuming yes is the eventual outcome, the question turns to what circumstances and conditions will be in place when we can leave the country. For example, Singapore currently welcomes visitors from Germany but they must not travel to a third destination country. You must show proof of seven days accomodation in Singapore on arrival and stay in your hotel room for 24 hours until you’ve cleared a COVID test - not exactly a great scenario.

Should we assume that once Singapore reaches eighty percent or greater these conditions will be removed?

As an aside, I think had it not been for the NSW situation, the country would likely have continued into 2022 in this COVID zero fantasy.

Greg E

Member since 26 Sep 2020

Total posts 26

Originally Posted by DVDA

The yes vote has surged in the past week since the various announcements regarding 80% double dose.

Assuming yes is the eventual outcome, the question turns to what circumstances and conditions will be in place when we can leave the country. For example, Singapore currently welcomes visitors from Germany but they must not travel to a third destination country. You must show proof of seven days accomodation in Singapore on arrival and stay in your hotel room for 24 hours until you’ve cleared a COVID test - not exactly a great scenario.

Should we assume that once Singapore reaches eighty percent or greater these conditions will be removed?

As an aside, I think had it not been for the NSW situation, the country would likely have continued into 2022 in this COVID zero fantasy.

I agree with you on the NSW point. NSW has one of the better health systems and their contract tracing section along with others in that area were not ripped apart as has happened in other states over the last few decades. Gladys, for all her faults, is a "can do" sort of person (having worked on projects for the NSW Government). When she wants something done, I wouldn't want to be in the room when someone says it can't be done. Our PM is at the other end of the spectrum.

NSW will hit 80% single dose early next week. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't get close to 90%. At those sort of levels, it's hard to justify locking up vaccinated Australians who enter the country.

patrickk

Qantas

Member since 19 Apr 2012

Total posts 684

Greg the issue isn’t just vaccinated Australian who can home quarantine but those that can’t hence Toowoomba. Full vacced people can still carry the bug hence home quarantine and a couple of tests. I think we will be able to come and go in December. The fine print will be interesting. I’m not sure I’m going anywhere until later next year when we know more about the effects of the bug on fully vacced people and we have a few more treatments around.

Hi Guest, join in the discussion on Probability of International Travel from January

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