Does anyone have any insights as to what may come out of the so called QANTAS review.

26 replies

reno

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 20 Sep 2013

Total posts 316

Does anyone have any insights as to what may come out of the so called QANTAS review.Will what ever AJ comes up with be enough,what will be the markets reaction..Do AJ and the board have the confidence/support of the market and staff to implement Major structural change.Are cutbacks to international routes possible/seems like they have been trim backed as far as you can go,will domestic capacity be cut back.Are we going to see more Jetstaration and or cut backs to their OFF shore operations.Are more job cuts necessary and or will we see staff have to take 10-20% pay cuts to reduce costs as many airlines in similar situations do.

johnaboxall

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 24 Aug 2011

Total posts 384

Predictions: Cut DXB-LHR, cancel any further A380 orders. Cancel JQ-HK startup (face it, just won't get approved) and bring the surplus A320s back from France and Japan for domestic/TT work. Increasing number of small cutbacks (e.g. smaller meals - that type of thing). Unions will need to get their head around the fact that the good times are over. More job cuts. More outsourcing. Give up the insane 65% domestic share mantra - QF will be the first to blink in the domestic capacity war. Share price crash, company taken over by some accountants who will toss the board, strip QF for short-term gain and flip what's left. Remember - it's just another business. 

Joshb

Qantas - QFF Platinum

Member since 20 Mar 2012

Total posts 122

My understanding is that the A380's will be costly to get out of, whereas the 50 options they have on the 787-9's Boeing sold to QF at very discounted list prices. I think they will delay the A380 options until mid 2020's and cancel the first raft of 787-9 slots they have but hold on to options further down the line.

i think they'll drop one of the DXB-LHR legs but unsure as to what they would do with the spare aircraft. Maybe they'll drop QF9/10 altogether and focus the spare aircraft on SYD-DFW if the aircraft has that capability. 

All in all I believe we will see a further shrinking of QFi which is unfortunate. I fly 2-3 return legs to LHR ex MEL (in J but upgrade to F most of the time) per year and always look forward to it. Will be a shame to see it dwindle further

Domestically they need to drop this capacity 'war'. There were about 40 pax on a MEL-ADL flight this morning on a 737-800. Surely with the decrease in yields since they put 2 aircraft on for every 1 VA does the writing is on the wall?

AusFlyer

Member since 10 Mar 2011

Total posts 137

I would be surprised if they cut DXB - LHR because the slots at LHR are so hard to come by that giving them up might mean that they won't get them back when they want to. I think LHR will be one that they hang onto.

johnaboxall

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 24 Aug 2011

Total posts 384

The days of multiple-sector long haul are over. By dropping the DXB-LHR they can redirect the planes elsewhere (or get rid of them), lose a whole crew base, and still make money by bouncing people to EK. 

PLATY

Member since 19 Jan 2012

Total posts 138

I really can't see any point in running two flights a day from Australia to DXB and LHR when the other 14 are being run by partner EK.

QF international is one step away from being toast - too small to be viable, product that can't compete (cafe breakfasts in business class, seriously, what utter tosh).

The fuel surcharges on internaional award flights virtualy nullify the benefit of QF points for international travel when compard with other FF schemes.

It's a right royal mess and obviously Joyce ain;t the person to fix it.

AusFlyer

Member since 10 Mar 2011

Total posts 137

I actually think the cafe breakfasts in Business Class are great. I can't think of anything worse than having re-heated hot breakfasts on a flight after not getting enough sleep. The cafe breakfast was a welcome change in my opinion. Perhaps it should only be an option but I love it.

johnaboxall

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 24 Aug 2011

Total posts 384

If CX can manage to serve a full hot breakfast in J (Western or otherwise) with 60 minutes before landing, QF could at least make an effort and have some options. If you hit the day running a full breakfast saves a lot of time. And frankly for the price/points for the fare, QF should be ashamed. 

AusFlyer

Member since 10 Mar 2011

Total posts 137

I wasn't commenting on whether Qantas could or couldn't do it... I was simply saying that I prefer the cafe breakfast... as I stated... "in my opinion". I find most breakfasts served on planes are pretty disgusting... The food offering on CX I particularly find very much below average, but the exception is the dim sum breakfast.

TheRealBabushka

Member since 21 Apr 2012

Total posts 2,059

Dear Institutional Investors,

I beg you pardon my ignorance. Could you please explain why and how you continue in believing the 65% market share strategy is viable and appropriate? 

What has Qantas management told you to alay any concern, which might cause you to pull the rug from under them?

Or perhaps your own research shows this strategy is still sensible and viable? If so, do share with us why it remains so.

moa999

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 02 Jul 2011

Total posts 835

TRS - As the larger player you get certain scale efficiencies that give you benefits. Unfortunately in QF this is more than offset by other higher cost structures.

If 65% isn't the number... what is 50%, 35%, 10% - after all Virgin's owners can keep giving it expansion capital.

Reality is this is what QFi has already done - barely grown ASK over the last 10-20yrs, whereas the market and competitors have grown substantially. And yet I suspect you also complain about QFi not being as big as it used to be.

MikeM

qantas

Member since 18 Oct 2012

Total posts 66

One wonders if the Qantas PR machine that has been creating fear in the market over the past several months has the sole aim of breaking free of the Qantas ownership act regardless of the short term implications.

 IMHO Qantas needs (i) a carrier with a good to debt to equity ratio to take a major stake, preferably one with a large sovereign ownership, (ii) is geographically relevant (such as cathay), (iii) is based in a hub and (iv) provides a similar or better level of service.   

Austline

Member since 23 Aug 2011

Total posts 41

I flew 4 times last year Mel to Accra and Nairobi via Dxb PE, with the exception of one return flight most had light loads. What a disaster this move has been, QF's timings are all wrong, going north to Euro or Africa you have hours to wait and the accomm is very average..EK has been the real winner out of this deal.

QF will ditch DXB/LHR it will free up 2-3 x a380s, they will sell LHR slots and defer or cancel any new aircarft purchases.. All very tragic!, I am convincend that AJ, Clifford, the Board and the exec team have no idea what they are doing. If they keep cutting QFI you will not only lose crtitcal mass but also the one real strategic advantage you have over VA - virtual airline - QF international services.  

As for investment in cabin upgades you do need need lie flat beds to Perth or any other dometic route just good inflght food and service.. As a treat, I purchased 2 x J class tickets to Perth for Christmas for my wife and self. Flight over was okay but the lounge in Perth, well no need to elaborate it was awful, and the return flight they had upgraded staff  onboard and the crew spent most of their time chatting to them. Business associates and friends in Perth are using VA and raving about them even Lanson vintage Champagne!

As a platinum FF-  with lifetime gold, I will probably not achieve Plat tier this year as I am 100 staus credits short, but for the first time not concerned as it will allow me to try the lalternatives, in saying that I love the QF F lounges and the service onboard QFI is always good.

Did QF make the wrong decsion in appointing AJ? that's history but they certainly need to look at changes at the top. Jetstar Hong Kong gone, Jetstar Pacifc get rid of them and get back to the running the core airlines.

hutch

Member since 07 Oct 2012

Total posts 761

I'm surprised that everyone thinks DXB-LHR is on the chopping block? My understanding is that the DXB-LHR legs do quite well. QFi has been losing money for many years, but I would be surprised if QFi was not losing less money today (particulary on Europe/Americas) than it was a few years back. I would think QFi is around where it needs to be - but Asia remains a problem.

The current (major) issue QF faces is domestic. It needs to remove the 65% line in the sand and make money on a lesser % (it used to make money on a lesser market share) - fly the routes with a capacity to make money, not market share. Additionally, the mindsight of 'we'll add 2 planes to each of Virgins' means you are always reacting to your competitor, rather than making your competitor react to you. Time to get your mojo back!

It needs to accept that to make money you need to spend money and their QFd product (& qfi) needs to be competitive - hence A330's need to be upgraded sooner rather than later. When your competitor is cheaper and has a better product you are up a creek without a paddle. If you can't compete on price, you need to win the market on other factors - many products on the supermarket shelves are sold at a higher price than their competitors, but still outsell their cheaper competitors.

I'm expecting out of the review:

  • Sale of QF terminals
  • JQ HK to continue
  • Announcement of job cuts
  • QFF to remain with QF

I think the following may occur:

  • Sale of an additional % of 3K (reducing stake to 33%)
  • QFi to recieve next two A380's but cancel/delay remaining A380's
  • LAX-JFK to be cancelled

I'd like to see (which I doubt will happen):

  • The end of the market share wars
  • Upgrades to 330's
  • Retiming of Singapore flights to better spread dbl daily flights
  • QF agrees to cancel JQ HK in exchange for CX agreeing to closer relationship with weaker QF 
  • Some 787-9's to remain on schedule to allow retirement of 747's

A curve ball:

  • China Southern buys a stake in QF (which means CX definately won't partner with QF)

 

 

 

whipper

Member since 17 Feb 2012

Total posts 50

I love the complete short sightedness on the current QF situation.  Qantas issues didn't just appear in the last 4 years, they have been happening since the 1980's.  I mean who ordered a fleet of nothing other than 747's/A380's for the international fleet that has meant no flexbility to fly with smaller planes until the last few years with the A330's? Not AJ or the currrent board.  I admire the fact that AJ grounded the airline when it was being blackmailed by their staff on their pay demnds.  I admire the fact he knew he needed EK to stem the losses and use their seemless connections through Dubai to rebuild the reason you would fly them at all.  And anyone who knows about the cost base for operating here would know we are lucky we have an international airline at all. 

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