SYD-NRT is obviously a 747 but is it the new or old config?

SYD-NRT is obviously a 747 but is it the new or old config? (layflat J seats?). I'm flying there return in July and think it is likely to be the older style. I have a paid ExpertFlyer subscription - how can I tell with that which config I might get. Cheers.

it can vary some days it will be a new one and some days anold one yesterday it was a new 747 

Dear htc,

The Qantas Source website has a Jet Tracker database, which allows you to trace the historical movements of all Qantas aircraft. Theoretically, you should be able identify the 16 or so operational 747s and extrapolate their future schedule based on their historical movements. There has to be some sort of logic to the allocation of aircraft, which should tell you which aircraft will be used on your NRT sector.

Alternatively once you've have identified the historical movement, you should be able to distinguish aircraft serial numbers that have flown the DFW,SCL,LAX,JFK as being those with the new J seats. Then compare the seat maps from ExpertFlyer against the seat maps of these known aircraft to help identify if the NRT flight you're on is on the refurbished plane.

There surely has to be some sort of logic to the allocation of aircraft and if I had some time on my hands I'd be very tempted to do this analysis!

Why not just use Flight Radar 24. I find they have the best aircraft database?

Yes, but the point is to analyse the data to extrapolate the diagrams/rotations the 744s are flying to derive the probablity of the OP getting a refitted one on his NRT flight. Having the data is only a start.

All 747s with rego VH-OEx (E-J) are refurbished. These are all 747-400ERs.

Further to that however, 

VH-OJX (OJS, OJT and OJU) are also refurbished. 

The rule for flying business on Qantas 747s outside of the SYD-DFW-BNE-SYD route is to pick nose cone seats as if the aircraft is not refurbished, there is then a high chance of having the old First seats. 

Cheers

Thanks qfflyer!

Now is there something special about the seat configuration of VH-OEE to VH-OEJ & VH-OJS to VH-OJU that should be noted, so that we can use ExpertFlyer to determine which aircraft is being used?

Unless of course there is a more direct method to identify the aircraft registration when making a booking?

Easiest thing is reconfigured 747s have three rows of Business in the nose cone. Old configurations have four. 

Happy to be of service!