Is the A380-800 set to see a 'whole lot of love' with signed new orders in the next few days?

16 replies

kimshep

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 11 Oct 2014

Total posts 336

Is the A380-800 set to see a 'whole lot of love' with signed new orders in the next few days?

After a period of approx. 27-28 months with no new orders, there are to be two significant announcements on the 27th and 29th Jan that may well be good news for Airbus.

ANA is set to announce its updated fleet plan on the 29th - and hopefully it confirm its plans for the A380-800. Interesting, since it could be none (hardly likely), three (as has been widely speculated) or it could be more.

Also, on the 27th (tomorrow) a delegation from Iran is believed to be meeting both the French President and also visiting Airbus. It is rumoured that an order will be placed for 8 A380-800's and 16 A350-900's along with a raft of narrow-bodies. Total order size is alleged to be 127 aircraft.

Serg

QFF

Member since 12 Apr 2013

Total posts 870

To my taste 747 was queen of the sky and 747-8 is still best looking big plane in the sky. A380 is plainly ugly – flying hangar, this is about it. Though YMMV and may do so greatly.

johnaboxall

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 24 Aug 2011

Total posts 384

Maybe some love, maybe not. Rumour is that ANA are taking over the Skymark orders and "got a deal". Otherwise the only new orders will most likely be from airlines without funding constraints (i.e. ME3 or Government-owned). The future for airlines that need to operate as a business is with twin-engine. 

SteveCF

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 15 Aug 2012

Total posts 67

You're right on the money. These orders whilst encouraging are only filling vacated production slots. 

The day of big 4 engine jets is getting near its end, especially with the 777x coming and increased capacity.

if you took Emirates away the A380 program would be in enermous strife.

smit0847

Member since 30 Aug 2013

Total posts 148

2 small orders isnt going to save the production of this airline. The entire project will barely break even.

Richard Brown

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 26 May 2012

Total posts 132

BA and Turkish are remoured too to be in the mix for more A380s, but there is not much more out there at this time.

riley

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

Member since 19 Mar 2014

Total posts 358

A handful of orders here and there isn't really the love it needs. 

I think the points above cover off everything. It's either way ahead of it's time or way behind. The ME3 airlines with their far reaching hub and spoke model is the only hope for it's future. 

StudiodeKadent

Member since 20 May 2015

Total posts 109

The A380 is a fantastic plane but its a niche plane. It only really works for airlines that need extra capacity at slot-restricted airports. Sure, its very efficient when you fill the plane, but not many airlines can fill A380s that easily.

Well, it also works for Emirates too, but they used the A380 basically to build an entirely new tourism destination (i.e. get lots and lots of people to fly through and have a stopover in Dubai).

I do think the A380 has a role in the future, but it will be a smallish one. This isn't a bad thing, but the A380 just isn't a Swiss Army Knife plane.

If Airbus make an improved version with better wings and more aerodynamic improvements... maybe a SLIGHT squeeze of the cross section (because the A380 is wide enough to take almost 19" seats at 10-abreast on the lower deck)... keep improving the engine efficiency... use more composite materials... they wouldn't need a new engine, they'd make the plane lighter too. Perhaps they could also build a shorter range version with only two engines? I think the Trent XWB can work on the A380 (Airbus did tests I think), and several A380 routes are a lot shorter than the A380s maximum range.

But really, the current A380 is a good plane that's simply ahead of its time. The A380 was built after a study which argued several very popular cities have slot-constrained airports and thus the only way to upgauge capacity at them would be to use bigger jets. The study made a valid argument but this is still a niche problem which only happens at certain airports... Heathrow and Haneda are two examples. But airports can be expanded... HKG and LHR are both getting new runways. But yeah, the A380 is a solution for a problem which hasn't become chronic. Its a great craft but somewhat ahead of its time.

Joshb

Qantas - QFF Platinum

Member since 20 Mar 2012

Total posts 122

"HKG and LHR are both getting new runways"

HKG - not until mid 2020's

LHR - no decision has been made to build a 3rd runway

StudiodeKadent

Member since 20 May 2015

Total posts 109

Regarding HKG, you're right. The point I was trying to make is that the problem which the A380 exists to solve can and is able to be addressed in other ways.

As for LHR, I read that a report recommended a third runway. If no official decision is made you're absolutely right but frankly I think they'd be mad to NOT build a third runway.

msport2012

Delta Air Lines - SkyMiles

Member since 14 Apr 2013

Total posts 295

If ANA & TK do aquire A380's. What routes do you think they would fly. I beleive that TK would start

IST-SYD route & 

ANA: HND - LHR  

StudiodeKadent

Member since 20 May 2015

Total posts 109

Reports on Airliners Dot Net say that ANA is actually planning to use the A380 to Hawaii, serving the leisure market.

I'd have thought Heathrow and JFK were more obvious destinations, personally (given they are much more premium/business oriented) but Hawaii is a massively popular tourist destination for the Japanese public so I guess the capacity will be useful and ANA will give the jet a very high-density configuration.

F-Flyer

Member since 11 Aug 2015

Total posts 23

Rumor has it that ANA will be using 3 new A380's orginally aquired by Skymark to use on routes to Hawaii. They may though take a gamble and aquire more than 3 (10 max) for routes to LHR, JFK,LAX and maybe SYD or MEL.

In regards to Turkish Airlines, a SYD route sound obsurd. They have speculated in the past about starting a new route to SYD but it definately won't be TK's first A380 route if they even buy the aircraft. I say there is a 0% chance of seeing a TK A380 at SYD in the next 10 years. They should put it on routes to JFK, LAX and SFO instead.

cooper81

BA Gold

Member since 01 Apr 2012

Total posts 75

BA are said to be in the market for second hand birds (most likely thought to be coming from MH).

I don't get how A380's would be a good fit for Iran Air.  As others have said it's a niche aircraft best suited for flying in and out of slot restricted airports on routes where multiple daily flights can be consolidated slightly.  For example with BA LHR-LAx and LHR - HKG used to be 2 x daily 747 and 1 x daily 777.  With the A380 in the mix they've been able to go 1 x 747/1 x 380 and 1 x 777/1 x 380 respectively.

For sure there will be a huge upsurge in punters flying in and out of Iran but at a guess i'd say the majority of them will be gobbled up by the ME3 all of which already fly from Iran via their ME hubs to the world.  I know there will be some that will stump up more cash for a direct flight - not sure if it will justify a fleet of A380's though.

moa999

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 02 Jul 2011

Total posts 835

Found that statement - only 10days old - saying that BA were looking to lease six used aircraft - which is interesting given I think MH only wanted to get rid of 2.

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