I'm likely (70%) flying to Seoul in July for an event (arrive 15 july, leave 23 july) and I'm not sure which of 3 options I should take (current fares are around $1100).

I'm likely (70%) flying to Seoul in July for an event (arrive 15 july, leave 23 july) and I'm not sure which of 3 options I should take (current fares are around $1100).

1. Buy now, risk $350 cancellation fee.

2. Wait for a lower price.

3. Wait until I know for sure whether I'm going and buy then.

What city will you be departing from? That could help us figure out the price history and better help you with your question.

Sydney

Sydney

First of all are you flight in Economy?

and also where are you flying from in Australia 

and also which airline did you see the $1100 price with (Scoot, Cathay, Qantas)?

Cathay, from sydney.

Is there a certain airline you would like to fly with? Are you with any Frequent Flyer Programs at all? Also is there a certain of day you want to leave or do you just want the cheapest fare, Vietnam Airliens have flights for under $1000 on your selected dates if that's what you want.

hi toddsci:

1) $350 represents your total loss in the event that the trip is cancelled.

2) Prices of tickets rarely go down, particularly in the peak Northern Summer season (July)

3) Find out what the fare of the higher booking classes are, then subtract that amount by the amount of the cheaper fare. The value represents your opportunity cost.

If the opportunity cost (3) is substantially greater than the total potential loss (1). Then I would pick option 1.

This ensures you obtain the best value outcome while minimising your risk (that you cannot get a ticket).

How do you find the booking classes? Well you can ask your travel agent/airline and get them to price the next few fares up (I don't know which airline you're intending to fly otherwise I could advise). Alternatively if you gave me the details of your intended flight I may be able to obtain that information for you via Expertflyer.

Hope this helps.