Post-coronavirus, 'normal' travel may not resume until 2023

Business travellers will lead the recovery, but traffic won't be back to 2019-levels until 2023.

By David Flynn, April 15 2020
Post-coronavirus, 'normal' travel may not resume until 2023

With airlines around the world reeling from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, and the very real risk that some will be unable to survive the effects of the pandemic-led slowdown or shutdown, attention remains focussed on when the industry will recover and how long that recovery will take.

There's no model for this – no modern-times equivalent to draw upon – but according to global travel specialists Atmosphere Research Group, that recovery timeline will slowly stretch out for two full years after COVID-19 is declared as being "under control".

That of course remains the X-factor, and the San Francisco think-tank hasn't defined what this milestone may look like: is it the infection curve being well and truly flattened, or does it mean the arrival and widespread distribution of a vaccine?

However, Atmosphere Research Group concurs with other forecasters and industry executives in that the recovery will be a gradual return rather than a fast bounce-back, and led by domestic travel.

Airlines are likely to rebuild their networks, especially on the international front, beginning with key routes but with a strategic focus on capacity which will favour smaller and more fuel-efficient aircraft such as the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 over the likes of the double-decker Airbus A380.

Estimated recovery timeline

So how does this play out over the next few years, and who will the airlines be looking to when it comes to filling those aircraft?

For the sake of pegging Atmosphere Research Group's sliding timeline against the calendar, let's assume that the coronavirus is generally declared as being "under control" towards the end of this year.

The first 6-9 months of post-coronavirus travel (mid-late 2021, on our ambit timeline) will see what Atmosphere terms 'tiptoe travellers' venturing out.

Although this group will include some business travellers, it's expected to be primarily personal and leisure-based trips. This 'first to fly' brigade will be "better educated" and be drawn from the highest income groups, suggests Atmosphere, and can be described as "cabin fever escapees'. They'll mainly be setting out on domestic travel but also chalking up some long-range international trips.

Across the 8-16 month mark (through to mid-2022) Atmosphere predicts a wave of what it calls 'pioneers'. This group will be led by business travellers as well as mid-to high-tier frequent flyers, with household income of US$125k and higher, and be venturing out on mainly long-range international flights.

From 12-18 months they'll be joined by a rush of 'fast followers', as the industry sees a 'near-normal volume of business travellers' aligned with strong bookings for the premium cabins of business and first class. Late 2022, then, is when business travel will largely be back to normal, or at least as close to the old normal as the new normal will get.

At 16-24 months after COVID-19 is considered under control (the end of 2022, if COVID-19 is under control by the end of this year), it's time for leisure travellers to return en masse as the industry reaches "80-90% of pre-virus leisure volume", while at 24+ months (2023) Atmosphere expects travel to be "at or above pre-virus traffic".

David

David Flynn is the Editor-in-Chief of Executive Traveller and a bit of a travel tragic with a weakness for good coffee, shopping and lychee martinis.

QF

11 Jul 2014

Total posts 456

Hopefully there are more first class suites to self isolate on those smaller planes

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

28 Oct 2011

Total posts 364

Dependent, of course, on the price people are willing to pay for that.

Qantas

22 Oct 2012

Total posts 277

People who fly First Class now probably do it regardless of the high cost, and that is likely to continue.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

I think if there is a vaccine by mid to end of 2021 it will be a condition of entry to many/most countries and then it will take off quite quickly. I'm in higher education and international travel is a key part of that but insurance companies won't let us travel until a really good anti-viral but more likely a vaccine that works without too many boosters required.

Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards

08 Jul 2014

Total posts 58

I agree, patrickk - apart from our own personal risk assessments, insurance coverage will (justifiably) have a major role to play in when and how quickly travel returns to 'normal'. That said, as much as I miss certain aspects of travel, and the freedom to engage therein at will, I am quite enjoying the excuse to remain in situ - whilst being horrified at the direct and indirect suffering caused by this pandemic.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

It could be Patrick, though I hope it won't be. I also expect that it won't stop there - many other vaccines will join the list, probably at the same time. Some Pacific Island nations already require the MMR shot prior to entry, some of these countries need it 15 days before entering the country (such as Vanuatu).

If a vaccine requirement were to come into place, it will dampen travel demand as some people won't travel anymore if they're required to be vaccinated as a pre-condition to entry.

Still, I don't think it will happen like this. International travel will resume in the coming weeks, led mainly by people stuck, voluntarily or otherwise in foreign countries wanting to return home when travel restrictions ease, family visit, then business and high-end leisure travelers, and finally backpackers and mass leisure travelers.

It's anyone's guess as to the timeline this will happen, but I don't believe this think tank. Provided economic conditions improve, people who are out of work now regain their jobs or find new ones, then travel demand will pick up within months. I see borders re-opening in 1-2 months, and travel demand slowly coming back over the course of 3-6 months. It's quite possible the coronavirus scare will soften demand for much travel for years to come, depending on how frightened potential travelers are by the prospect of getting stuck abroad, the possibility of such closures happening again and of course, any changes in entry requirements as a result of this.

One thing is for sure - if travel/entry regulations are tightened going into the future, it will result in permanently lower travel demand. One of the pleasures of traveling abroad so far has been how easy it is to get on a plane and enter another country. Aside from the odd Pacific island nation (since last year) and some African/South American countries for which yellow fever vaccines are required, all other countries tend to have very simple entry requirements. Even Saudi Arabia opened up to general tourism only last year.

QF

11 Jul 2014

Total posts 456

Taking a punt I actually think things will get back to normal pretty quick in Australia, then there will be other safe places around the world that will link with us early in the peace. I think other unsafe places will be blocked from entry or do the 14 days in isolation (pay yourself mate). The figures coming out show not all of us are going to get Covid 19 bad and was it the TB shot we had as kids keeping the numbers down and also the social distancing? Why are our numbers so low you have to remember 48,000 people die of cancer in Australia every year and we have had 50 Covid 19 deaths.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Upupandaway do note cancer is not contagious and if we did not do travel bans, quarantine, social distancing, our Covid death toll would soon match cancer and more. Hence my view of a slow return to ‘normal' or even a new normal.

QF

11 Jul 2014

Total posts 456

I'm lost totally, I see no relevance to my comment, I must to uneducated

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

I think my point is that there won't be any safe places to link to outside Australia as the risk of another returning traveller(s) outbreak is simply too great and 1% (mortality) of a large lot is still a lot. The lack of any sensible testing in the UK and much of the US sort of rules them out. In Australia WA and NT may keep travel bans for longer as the risk from the rest of Australia is still too great.

QF

11 Jul 2014

Total posts 456

Your making an assumption on the time line I meant by "pretty quick" and you have put no time line on your thoughts, are you talking 2023?. I'm think VIC, NSW and QLD will get back to normal first with flights followed by the other states. A safe heaven link maybe NZ to come online and I'm sure there will be some type of test happening as well.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

I think east coast domestic later this year, could be third quarter and you're right NZ may be not long after. Further international will be driven by vaccine development, probably later next year and travel contingent on vaccination or anti-bodies. Then the students can come back and business travel and more adventurous holidayers. 2022 mostly back to a new ‘normal'.

16 Jan 2018

Total posts 94

I agree by Q3 we will see regional state open up again (BNE-TSV, SYD-PQQ, etc), by the end of Q3 I would highly expect that Australian domestic travel will restart as well. Only if we continue on the trajectory we are at right now. Internationally it will take longer and I think that it will be countries that have proven that their robust measures have lead to results. Looking at Singapore and Hong Kong, they are reliant on the tourist dollar as much as the local if not more. Major hotels are sitting empty at the moment. They have put in strong measures and are seeing the benefits of this already with their new case numbers. Australia is seeing a reduction in daily new cases but needs to maintain this momentum for at least another month to be able to say that we are truly on the other side.

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

24 Jan 2018

Total posts 255

Oh, God help us all if NZ is the only safe place to go. Their PM would impose some rediculous, PC test upon landing. Tahiti on the other hand .....

Although, I'm told by locals the that Ahern will struggle to get re-elected. Nope, let's hope USA and UK get on top of this soon.

18 Sep 2018

Total posts 4

We don't know yet how much our weather saved us (it was late summer here v late winter in the northern hemisphere when this really kicked off).

Air New Zealand - Airpoints

21 Jan 2016

Total posts 181

It will depend on how many airlines will survive the looming COVID induced global recession. Those airlines who do survive, will be the ones that have either deep financial pockets or friendly governments.

I think there will be more direct 'point to point' medium to ultra long haul travel reducing the need for transfer hubs like Dubai, Doha, Singapore, etc, as countries will still have tighten boarders to prevent further possible outbreaks of COVID-19 related strains. Direct 'point to point' passenger air travel will be easier to mange any out breaks without disrupting air freight.

I do see airlines who survive and are members of airline alliances do more co-sharing or having their own in depth alliances like Qantas/Emirates and Air NZ/United/Singapore Airlines.

The type of people who will undertake medium to ultra long haul air travel will essential business travelers, 'essential' workers and those leisure travelers who have the disposable money to spend on 'luxury' leisure products.

Domestic air travel within Australia and New Zealand will see initial growth, followed short haul international air travel like the Trans Tasman and South Pacific Islands but it will depend on how many people who will have the disposable income for air travel.

Since COVID-19 is more of a disruptive virus and not seasonal unlike the other members of the Coronavirus family, it will be around for a while causing further disruption to global manufacturing, supply chains, travel and economies despite a vaccine/s being developed. We still haven't found a cure for the common cold or the seasonal flu. So lets not get all excited that vaccine will eliminated the COVID-19 virus.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

I agree COVID 19 will require annual vaccinations like flu and it will also need some reasonable anti-viral treatment if we do get it. Forget herd immunity.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Absolutely, Patrick. Annual re-vaccination for covid-19 will be required, if it were a pre-condition to entry into foreign countries. Even if it isn't, it will become a recommended vaccine, with annual re-vaccination taking place like the flu.

Krisdude, I agree...vaccines don't eliminate diseases from circulation, otherwise MMR, tetanus and other vaccines wouldn't have been given to everyone since the 60s and continuing to the present day. In fact, most vaccines now have booster shots that weren't previously given. The one exception is yellow fever, which is now valid for life. Previously, it was recommended to get 10-year boosters.

In any case, we will be looking at countries returning to normal long before a covid19 vaccine comes out, or if it does. We all managed to survive perfectly well, traveling around the world before this crisis and we'll manage to do so, once we emerge out of it.

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

21 Jan 2014

Total posts 251

Most are forgetting the balance sheet of many businesses will put a clamp on travel for some time, many years I would say, and some will have found all the travel we once undertook is not necessary anymore as we discover a different way to do things. For those who have to travel for business many will be confined to the cheap seats for all but the longest of flights, as many companies will not have the discretionary dollars to pay for business class seats. Massively indebted governments should also put travel restrictions on all but essential travel as they try to reign in their debt. On the bright side airlines should pick up millions of passengers who were considering a trip on a cruise ship, who the hell would want to get on one of those in the near future.

Etihad - Etihad Guest

19 Mar 2018

Total posts 39

Biggest lie ever told.

OAG has just released numbers. Passenger numbers edged up slightly.

We have not begun to fathom how big the populations of India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, China, Pakistan truly are.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Who or what is OAG

Emirates Airlines - Skywards

20 Jan 2018

Total posts 37

I travel for the work that I have taken on, which is rescuing and supporting to independence African victims of people trafficking for prostitution. Mostly out of Dubai. This takes me to UAE, Nigeria, Uganda and Ethiopia multiple times a year to facilitate all these activities. Not being able to travel has halted all these activities. Thank goodness for OFX and Rocket Remit who allow me to remotely support these people remotely.

For me, as soon as I can travel again, I will be back in the air using Emirates exclusively as usual. Assuming Emirates returns to the skies, I will be out there doing that work. Nothing apart from this travel ban will stop me. I'm an atheist, but..... I'm on a mission from god!!!

I also believe that there are many people who need to travel for work and they will get back in the sky as soon as they can. I also agree with those who emphasise the importance of face-to-face contact in so many negotiations, and I think the. majority of business travel will resume. People do have short memories and the allure of international travel will not be dulled much by this virus

Air New Zealand - Airpoints

21 Jan 2016

Total posts 181

I think that other coronaviruses and planet warming has some news for you and it is not good.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

AfricaTraveller, you're right. Most people have short memories and once this crisis passes, in just weeks normal life, which includes travelling, will resume. Some hysterical people who are scared of life itself may stay away from travel for some time, but for those of us who thrive on it, and who can't imagine life without it, will get on planes and cross borders almost as soon as we're allowed to.

Air New Zealand - Airpoints

21 Jan 2016

Total posts 181

COVID-19 virus and the other members the coronavirus family have some news for you and its not good.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Corona viruses cause the common cold. If they were as deadly as you're making them out to be, no one would be able to survive. Our immune systems are generally more than capable of dealing with what comes our way.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer the poster was referring to other members of the corona virus family such as SARS and MERS. The common cold has been around long enough for us to develop immunity. Given what we have seen with a staggering high mortality rate of 1% of infections I am far less sanguine than you on what our immune systems can handle. Give us ten years and you may be right but a lot of dead bodies in the meantime. One per cent of 25million is 250,000. The health system would be overwhelmed so the death rate would be closer to 10%, 2.5 million.

07 May 2016

Total posts 16

Now that the spread of disease almost everywhere is community-based rather than from travel, travel restrictions between countries and states may slow the spread in some places but will not stop it. When a country is past the peak and has things under control it will want to maintain the restrictions in order to minimize re-imports from countries where the numbers are still rising, and to help deflect a potential second wave. I think it unlikely there will be any major relaxation of travel restrictions until a system is in place that requires all travellers to have a relevant immunization card or health certificate as well as their passport before being allowed to travel, as once was the case for certain diseases and countries. The fact that some airfares for bookings early next year are significantly higher than was paid this year for (cancelled) flights is a trend that will probably worsen as time passes. Increased prices will suppress demand for leisure travel and discretionary business travel, and supply will also be lower as airlines fold or merge and aircraft are retired early. I think we will be lucky to see traffic approach 2019 levels as soon as 2023 if ever.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

There are people who used to be laughed at and ridiculed called "conspiracy theorists" who made the claim that vaccinations will be required to be a part of society in the future, whether for travel, to enter foreign countries, get visas and extensions and even for driver licenses. Now, due to the current crisis, many ordinary folk are talking about this and expect it to happen.

I see it differently. First of all, there will be considerable resistance to the idea of mandatory vaccinations. Secondly, many governments will be reluctant to impose blanket requirements like these, as it's unethical and presents a problem if adverse reactions occur, will they be liable to being sued? Of course, they can just exempt themselves from being litigated against, but softened travel demand will inevitably occur if the requirements to travel are tightened. Some tourism dependent countries will likely resist any attempt to make it too complicated to travel for this reason.

Lastly, it is untrue that vaccines used to be required for travel but aren't now. The opposite has in fact happened. You may not be aware that for many years now, some African and South American countries require proof of yellow fever vaccination to enter (or only if you have arrived from a transmission zone). There are also several Asian countries, which do not require vaccines for entry, but if you have traveled from a yellow fever zone within the past 6-10 days, also require proof of vaccination or an exemption, prior to being admitted.

Some Pacific Island nations now require proof of MMR vaccination prior to entry, since December 2019. This includes the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu. Saudi Arabia requires numerous vaccines for Hajj pilgrims, including meningitis and polio. China reportedly requires polio vaccination if arriving from Pakistan via their shared land border crossing. Pakistan reportedly also requires all citizens, as well as any foreign traveler, who has spent more than 4 weeks in the country, to present proof of recent polio vaccination prior to being allowed to leave.

In previous decades, vaccines were never required for international travel.

I think most of us, those who have regularly traveled, will do so as soon as they're able. I have no plans to change my lifestyle. If anything the trips I will take away will be longer thanks to the quarantine measures that are expected to remain in place at the New Zealand border. I'll go for months at a time instead of regularly coming back.

Singapore Airlines - KrisFlyer

08 Jun 2018

Total posts 91

Can you not see that you've contradicted yourself in the space of two sentences?

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

I see the quarantine measures being relaxed and removed quite quickly after a return to normalcy. Still, the 64000 dollar question is when will this happen? I don't know any more than anyone else, but my hunch is 1-2 months.

I, like you Dave, will carefully consider my plans to avoid quarantine measures, should they still be in place after travel becomes possible again, though I don't see it. I don't think you can have normal travel if the prospect of a 2 week enforced stay in a facility of the government's choosing, even if it's a nice luxury hotel, continues to be imposed.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Dear freqflyer I think it will be some months before Europe and the US are open given the issues they are having. A good anti retroviral will reduce the time but not until a vaccine otherwise otherwise we will be spreaders which the government won't like.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Doubtful - the USA will re-open far more quickly than many other countries. Already lots of protests happening.

You'll see I'm right - 2 months max before everything is back to normal (with perhaps a few countries re-opening a little later).

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

The Freq Flyer even if the US does open no-one will want to go there or be allowed to come from there due to their totally unreliable and decentralised COVID testing and tracking regime. Remember most Australian imported COVID cases came from the US. The issue is not if a country is open internally but if they have a robust and reliable system to ensure infected people can't travel internationally. That is more than a couple of months away. Not sure there are ‘lots of protests' a handful with less than 100 each doth not make a social movement.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Patrick, bureaucrats will make the decision to re-open countries. You're looking at this from the wrong perspective - not only do you believe the mainstream story, but if what you are saying were to happen, countries would never open up again. It simply can't go on like this forever.

Mark my words - in a few weeks, major economies will have re-opened. While I'm certainly no clairvoyant, but I think in max. 2 months time, the USA and most of Europe will be back to business as usual.

What I can't say is whether there will be any new travel requirements in light of all this. Increased surveillance and possible mandatory phone tracking/installation of tracking apps may be one outcome, it could also include thermal temperature screening at airports and other ports of entry, as China has been doing continuously since 2003. Most travelers won't even notice this. Or, less likely, we'll go back to normal without any changes to the previous status quo.

And I can tell you a lot of people are eager to head to the USA and they aren't living in fear. I plan on going there later this year.

17 May 2020

Total posts 3

You make a good point about countries opening to a 'near' normal state within a few months - I believe that this is a foreseeable future. We can't live off Government funded job keeping schemes forever, money needs to circulate - Already in Australia, for less than a month fuel priced were averaging well below a dollar a litre, but now, once the Government allowed people the ability to travel within their state and visit people, the price of fuel skyrocketed back to pre-Covid prices, around $1.20 a litre.

It is not a matter of being complacent or not caring for the safety of others - people have made plans and want to make plans. It is not fair to those who have worked hard for many years in their life, not to be allowed the freedom of a holiday.

People already have their spirits high and are very eager to return to their normal travelling routines, and I am one of those people. You can't cure every virus we face, but you can prevent them from occurring again.

17 May 2020

Total posts 3

Those restriction put in place by governments, in Australia at least, where removed quicker than they were enforced.

People will do things as soon as they can, they have been itching too for months and I wont be surprised to see an economic boost once the large restrictions are lifted.

01 Mar 2019

Total posts 6

This may be the beginning of the end for for class travel ,could airlines discontinue this service ,,,

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

18 May 2017

Total posts 20

I know everybody, including myself, are wanting definite time lines so we can start making our travel plans, but I think the situation is still too fluid & variable to make any plans just yet. The domestic situation will vary to some extent, but more so the international... It may be OK to visit New Zealand (for example), well before it is OK to visit the U.S. And how will that impact on returning to Australia...? Will some travellers coming in from certain risky destinations have to quarantine, where others from "safe" destinations be OK? Will there be a vaccine available, or if not a vaccine, new medicine available that will make the COVID-19 virus much less dire.? We do not have clear answers to these basic questions just yet... I think just play it by ear at this stage. May be in a few more months time things will become much clearer. I think now is still too early.

Singapore Airlines - KrisFlyer

08 Jun 2018

Total posts 91

I think there are a number of factors at play here that will have a seismic impact on travel - and especially the corporate travel market. And I say that as someone who has relied on the ability to travel extensively by air for pretty much my whole 20 year working career.

Firstly there is the fact that businesses will need to work out how they manage in the face of severely restricted flying (notwithstanding their duty of care to employees). This is clearly going to involve technology which is way cheaper than flying and is less prone to the sort of hiatus we are currently seeing.

Secondly the environmental impact of flying, it is not an environmentally sound practice and companies are looking at ways to reduce this. It has been handed to them on a plate!

The fact is that the vast majority of corporate travel is done by infrequent travellers who see it as a perk to head overseas once or twice a year. If any of us who work for large corporates really honestly look at it, how much of the corporate travel that we see is really 'essential'.

When we come out of this, we will see businesses desperately looking to preserve cash and the first lever any business can pull is that of cost. We are in a situation here where the issue for management around flying isn't 'what do we cut?', rather it is 'what do we reinstate?' and that, I suspect, will lead to very different behaviours and outcomes. Management won't be seen as the bad boys for cutting this, it's been done for them! Much as we like travelling, I suspect it will see the landscape here change permanently. If I had to guess, I would imagine that domestic routes will recover in those where it is hugely important (US and Australia as two significant examples) but the Australian practice of leaping on a plane for spurious meetings in Asia, will come under sharp and ongoing focus.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

That's a good point. Most corporate travel really isn't essential. Especially for Australian businessmen, most of whom are in the banking/finance/insurance and other similar white collar professions, given that manufacturing in Australia has all but ceased. Since these sectors don't produce anything tangible, there is little reason for face to face meetings except for cultural reasons perhaps. Nearly all meetings can be conducted via Zoom, Skype or some other video conference software.

It's those of us running businesses abroad, such as manufacturing based ones, who have a need for travel. I therefore see many companies cutting corporate travel, especially all the non-essential travel to places like Singapore, which is almost entirely white collar based, leaving travel for more essential forays to factories in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China and the USA.

07 May 2016

Total posts 16

The idea that the USA will "re-open far more quickly than many other countries" is questionable. The protests are akin to political rallies, and not in line with majority views. Re-opening has phases, and is not an on/off switch as implied by some. Preconditions for implementing Phase 1 of the White House "Opening up America again" Guidelines include continued downward trending, lots of testing and tracing, and adjustments for local and regional circumstances. Phase 1 keeps isolation for vulnerable individuals, allows social groups of up to 10 people, large venues, phased return to work, etc. all subject to strict physical distancing protocols. It keeps closed schools closed, and, most relevant to this discussion, minimizes non-essential travel while requiring adherence to CDC guidelines regarding isolation following travel.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

fnorman, you don't know what "majority views" are; you're making assumptions. Americans cherish their freedoms and if you only watch CNN and MSNBC, you're getting a biased picture. The leftist mainstream media is particularly strong on wanting to keep the restrictions going as long as possible. Apparently that's the most "progressive" thing to do.

Yes, there will probably be phases to re-opening, but they will be staged over a few weeks, to the point that after a month or two at the latest, all (or most) of these measures will be dropped. Just think about the resources needed to enforce all these things. There's a point where the government, the army and police will just say, "we can't do this anymore". Already in some Asian countries, national governments are finding it difficult to keep the enforcement up. It drains resources from more important things.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer the other issue is insurance. I can't do business travel this year as I can't get insurance through work. Next year maybe different with anti retrovirals or a vaccine but your couple of months is a bit ambitious. On your other point police love enforcement and the Asian countries that are ‘having trouble keeping it up' are having big spikes, so not sure where optimism is coming from. The Spanish flu another corona virus had three spikes with latter spikes worse than the first and it killed 50m. Not sure what is more important than fighting a pandemic. Careful what you wish for.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Be careful what you wish for...you're pinning your hope on a vaccine that will undoubtedly have no ability to control this virus.

"Police love enforcement"? Never heard that phrase before, please explain?

Well too bad for you if you can't get insurance. Many people can, some people go without. We all have to decide whether we want to take the risk or not.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer There will be a vaccine or anti-retrovirals, and like the flu it may have to be every year and I am sure by 2021 or 2022 at the latest it will keep CV-19 in check enough to keep us out of hospitals. And of course police love enforcing that is their day job. Just see how vigorous they are in enforcing lock downs. I can't see them ever getting bored with it. Having just had an insurance claim for a very mundane visit to a US hospital then having CV-19 covered is more than wise.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

It's not guaranteed there will be a vaccine, some experts are saying it's unrealistic to expect one so quickly, as they normally take years to develop. To this day, there is still no HIV vaccine on the market despite clinical trials of experimental HIV vaccines. There is a dengue fever vaccine, but it's not recommended even if you go to a dengue hotspot.

Yes, the police may very well love enforcing things if they get paid enough to do it. Depends on the country though, in Australia probably yes, but in many developing countries they're going to run out of steam eventually. This show hasn't run it's course though, we're just weeks in but let's see whether the same desire to enforce lock downs remains if this goes on for months or years. And that's assuming you don't get widespread protests first, which have already started in America, Italy and a few other countries. Even in Kenya.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Those of us reading this kind of publication are obviously quite well off financially and will probably weather the current storm OK. Many others, including a large section of the Australian population are not, so I think it's a bit elitist to sit up on our ivory towers and assume that "she'll be right mate" when many people have already lost their jobs, and surviving on government handouts alone will drag down the standard of living of many people for years to come, possibly permanently. If the crisis eases within the next month, most people will probably emerge OK, but if it drags on for 6-12 months or more (though I doubt it, but you never know) then all bets are off.

JTB
JTB

21 Apr 2020

Total posts 1

I think we are a long way off - years- from anything like normal international air travel. I can't see how airports and airlines can create systems which ensure adequate social distancing which inevitably is going to be part of our lives for possibly years. Easy Jet in the UK said they would exclude passengers from the middle seat but that doesn't prevent the guy behind you coughing all over you. And what about the routine scrums at boarding and disembarking? Airlines will leave themselves open to litigation from staff if they are asked to work without adequate protection just like in any other job or customers if government directed rules on social distancing aren't enforced.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

They won't. You can't keep social distancing up forever, unless you want to create a permanent "animal farm".

Secondly, if they keep these measures in place for years, it means permanently. Governments are very quick to take away rights, but rarely do they return them to us.

Airlines will go out of business permanently, and then the likes of online magazines like this one will largely become irrelevant, since business travel will cease to exist.

I can't predict the future, but I do have a hunch that business leaders and the public at large won't accept a future that is too vastly different from the recent past we just left behind. Everything was fine and dandy until a few weeks ago, why should we accept such infringements on our civil liberties from one day to the next? If we managed to survive until now, we'll certainly survive until whenever our number is up.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer when your number is up is fine but if you take two people with you then it becomes a very big issue when you multiply this by several hundred thousand. Spain started with a football match as did the UK if the latest reports prove correct.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Patrick, stop the fear mongering. Last year there were multiple measles outbreaks in a number of different parts of the world. They did a mass vaccination drive in Samoa, vaccinating the entire population and tried enforcing mandates in parts of NY/NJ, but other than that there were no restrictions, no flight suspensions, no lock downs.

Yet measles is supposedly 9-10 times more infectious than covid-19, as up to 18 people can be infected by one infectious person.

Please explain that one.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer most people have been vaccinated against measles or like me had it when we were young so have immunity, and as someone who has had it is not anywhere near as lethal or debilitating.. If the same proportion of the population had immunity against Covid-19 due to existing anti-bodies or vaccination it won't be a drama. I expect this will be the case in 2022 but certainly not this year. Just look at the death toll.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

How do you know most people have been vaccinated against the measles? Children in Australia maybe, but only since the 90s...before then only half of all children were vaccinated. In other countries like Samoa, it was down to 31%. Guess what? Irrespective of prior vax status or immunity ALL Samoan residents had to submit to vaccination late last year and 93% were eventually vaccinated.

Now, the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu require a vaccination certificate for measles to enter the country.

And your argument doesn't hold water given that flu viruses mutate and every year a new vaccination against the flu is urged. Starting May 1, if your parents are in a nursing home, you won't be able to visit without getting a flu shot as that's about to become mandatory.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

And there you go - you just admitted it...measles is not lethal in the vast majority of cases. Well neither is covid-19, if you look at ALL the evidence and not just what fits your narrative, you'll find some inconvenient truths, such as 99% of all Italian victims having pre-existing conditions and all of these individuals were of advanced age.

Also look up Event 201 please...it's a 5-part pandemic exercise sponsored by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the WEF and John Hopkins. Closely mirrors what's happening now.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Freqflyer as I said in an earlier post a 1% lethal rate is a very big deal, so 99% not dying is not a great solace. Flu is one tenth of that, and 20% CV-19 need hospitalisation, another very big deal, and can quickly overcome health systems as New York is finding. The latest for the UK is 40,000 which comes down to around 10,000 hospital beds. Quite a big deal.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

It's not 1% though and all depends on how deaths are tallied... also is it 1% of all elderly patients or all patients? Probably the former. Anyway, look up Event 201.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

FreqFler the 1% is total for example Australia is 75 deaths out of 6500 cases

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Just to finish the above. Australia is 1.1% mortality of total infections. Others are higher probably due to lower testing rates and more vulnerable populations. This is an easy calculation. While older people die the 20% that end up in hospital include the much younger. Buying time while we sort out how to manage it is not such a bad idea. We will have another month of lock down then we can go back to work at an office but travel out of Australia will be some ways off. To the US who knows given its rather shambollick lack of coordination.

07 May 2016

Total posts 16

TheFreqFlyer: You say I don't know what "majority views" are and that I am making assumptions. No sir I am not guessing about this; poll results widely reported on 20 April indicated that 60% of Americans opposed the protests and 22% supported them, 71% were more worried about lifting restrictions too quickly, and 29% were worried about lifting them too slowly. I see no evidence for your idea that certain media want the restrictions to go on as long as possible because "it's the progressive thing to do"? Regardless of politics, most of the media is reporting that those responsible for public health and most of the people want the restrictions to go on as long as necessary. Not as long as possible.

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

Of course the media want the restrictions to continue for as long as possible as they are the government's mouthpiece. I feel sorry for you that you don't realize this.

The reason many people (you say most but since you've never done a poll you have no way of knowing what the majority consensus actually is) want the restrictions to continue indefinitely is because the media has done their job of manufacturing the public's consent. Most people are brainwashed and you are certainly a good example of this.

Even if 22%/29% of whatever limited poll you are referring to are concerned about these restrictions dragging out too long, that's still a large percentage of the population. The longer they continue, the higher this percentage will become.

Emirates Airlines - Skywards

20 Jan 2018

Total posts 37

Pardon the pun, but perhaps you guys should cool your jets. This forum doesn't exist for the abuse of other peoples' opinions and beliefs. It's here for genuine discussion and polite disagreement and respect for another's views.

If you can't be civil, then you should be asking yourself how much of your deep past and your psyche you're taking into these discussions. Be tolerant, persuade respectfully and do not berate.

By arguing this way, you're being a tiny representation of the reason for so much injustice in this world. Think globally, act locally.

23 Apr 2020

Total posts 6

I am confused as to why we couldn't get up to 30-40% of normal capacity with proper (PCR, not anitbody) testing. Reconfigure airports with a socially distanced zone pre-check in which passengers are tested. Use a high volume machine like an 80 cartridge GeneXpert and definitively test all possible cases (asyomptomatic, pre-symptomatic etc.) with a turnaround time of under an hour. Recover costs through an additional passenger tax. Minimize airport staff, use extreme distancing measures for them and test a sample regularly. Being on the plane could be quite pleasant - only time in the 'new world' where you can safely chat to a stranger without distancing!

headline is misleading. What I think it means is, back to 2019 levels or profitability or both.

From a reliable source, have been told (forget what pollies say) that by 1 July 2020, all Australian domestic & trans tasman flights that are going to operate will be operating without any quarantine. It's school holidays. Financial pressure is huge.

Some like NTL/AKL may not restart & BNE/DUD might go back to once or twice a week at most, if at all, dependent on whether V2 does any international flying.

Air NZ will be flying to Australia & eastwards as well by some time in August/September, by which time, most flights that are going to resume, will.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Regular you are probably right but it might be another year to get beyond the trans Tasman bubble. Maybe Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, and HK are possible but beyond that hard to see.

no way, too much financial pressure. October at latest, which also happens to be 6 months after the real start of shutdown. Video links don't cut it. Face to face meetings are only way to go as business is concerned.

The world has to restart soon or we'll have 10 times the crime we have now & the good ol boys will be shooting anyone & everyone, including politicians.

Mental health is already a big problem as is domestic violence.

The yanks aren't closing down their skies.

21 May 2020

Total posts 2

When are you predicting flights to the USA to become unrestricted for aussie travellers?

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

I agree with regular flyer. Although a lot of developments have occurred in the 4 weeks since your comments were made, patrick is way off if he thinks airlines and cross border businesses can survive another year of shutdowns. Never in modern history have we experienced anything that comes even close to this.

I agree based on current assessments October sounds about right in terms of getting fully back to normal. Europe is already opening up (so far just to each other's countries, but still), by next month some European countries will open travel bubbles and the Aus-NZ bubble will likely take shape in a month or two, rather than September.

Asian countries are talking of a bubble of their own - Japan is targeting Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand. Thailand is targeting China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, possibly Australia and New Zealand. Vietnam is targeting Laos, Cambodia, some cities in China and Japan. About a month or two after the emergence of these bubbles, the rest of the world is likely to be added and things will get back to normal.

27 Nov 2019

Total posts 114

NZ deputy PM wants Qld/NZ border open now.

NOTE: more qlders ski in NZ than in Australia. Winter 2019 there were up to dozen or more nonstop flights from BNE

Qantas

22 Oct 2012

Total posts 277

Whilst domestic travel and trips to NZ will probably resume this year, many people will not resume international travel for a long time, especially to countries where the virus is seemingly out of control. I don't imagine travelling to the UK, Europe of the USA for a long time.

We don't even know when, or if, we will get a vaccine against COVID-19. After all, we still don't have a vaccine for the HIV virus.

in short term preventive drugs like possibly the Malaria drugs might work & seem to have promise.

I'd have no issue flying to USA now, but I wouldn't spend a lot of time in their cities.

Domestic - intrastate should start now, at least in Qld. 6 deaths in how long ? 2 months ?

Interstate should start very soon like next month, along with to NZ.

No one seems to be talking about the flu which will kill far more than corona.

17 May 2020

Total posts 3

As a young teen, in my final year of secondary schooling, in Australia, and someone who had hoped to enter into the Travel and Tourism industry (of course, pre coronavirus), I am now heavily relying upon this industry to restart to at least 50-60% operation by the middle of 2021, whether that may be domestic or limited international travel. Although, I am someone focusing on a cruising based career and no entirely on air travel, both areas need each other to work efficiently. - Otherwise, I can say that I will have no job already.

I am aware that many issues arise when considering the possible re-opening of popular destinations, but despite something like Covid-19, being an uncharted territory, we will eventually need to initiate a return to normal travel rates. We cannot keep ourselves held back when we know that preventative measures work and can provide positive changes to the Covid landscape we all live in. If it means that a family of 4 who wants to travel to the South Pacific on a week-long P&O Cruise should isolate at home for 14 days before sailing and upon return, then so be it. I think to isolate before embarking on any kind of long-distance and long term holiday would lower any risk of contracting, not only coronavirus but other forms of disease and therefore passing it on to unsuspecting passengers onboard a flight or cruise.

Many air travel companies are losing millions without travel continuing, and not to mention the negative impact on the cruising industry for not knowing what to do when faced with positive Covid-19 passengers.

I am reaching out, not only for myself but the many thousands of those around the world who are in the travel and tourism industry or emerging. I want to get into this industry and I will - but only if I know that people like myself will be supported.

I implore all the governments around the world - please think about those who are not in the many affected industries yet!

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Nicholas what a great post. To everything you say (which I agree with) I would add that cruise ships must also use hospital grade filters (N95) on their air conditioning much like aeroplanes do. They (the cruise ships) say they have the same filters as hotels but people don't spend weeks at time in hotel rooms .... unless they are in quarantine!!

Italy of all places is opening it's borders in 2 weeks time. The rest of the world will follow very soon. They have to, to stop unemployment growing rapidly.

04 Dec 2017

Total posts 54

This is pure dribble. Travel will open sooner rather than later; I'd say by Christmas it will all be ready to rumble!

05 Oct 2017

Total posts 130

I agree. I think Christmas at the very latest. Once travel restrictions have been lifted, normal travel will resume very quickly.

27 Nov 2019

Total posts 114

QLd/NZ in approx 2 weeks. NZ/USA

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Skier 2 weeks?? For that bookings would need to be open and protocols in place. No sign of that. Not sure what USA reference is about; they are no where near control with numbers rising not falling.

think the Sept 10 prediction from tourism restart taskforce is a bit pessimistic. I think flights to most places around the world will be unrestricted before Sept 10, from all the positive news of late

way sooner than Xmas like in 2 months time. Africa, South America, India & maybe some other 3rd world countries maybe bit later. It's over. Now here comes the flu for some people to worry about.

Qantas

19 Apr 2012

Total posts 697

Regular you may be right for some countries but given the poor state of the UK and the US in controlling this, quarantine will be the order of the day. If a country is relatively free (Australia) and the only new cases being travellers in quarantine, then they would be dumb to open up, and let carriers run riot and we know what that means ( see New York) It really can't get any worse for Italy for Australia it can. It is much more than flu and people under 40 with no risk attributes are being laid up at home for nearly two months with it. Be careful for what you wish for.


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